The Value of Probabilistic Thinking: Spies, Crime, and Lightning Strikes

Probabilistic thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some tools of math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome coming to pass. It is one of the best tools we have to improve the accuracy of our decisions. In a world where each moment is determined by an infinitely complex set of factors, probabilistic thinking helps us identify the most likely outcomes. When we know these our decisions can be more precise and effective.

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https://www.fs.blog/2018/05/probabilistic-thinking/